Sunday, March 18, 2012

Market Timing

March 18, 2012
This article dated October 7, 2011 by CXO Advisory shows the diminishing outperformance that the Moose has shown over the SPY (particularly over the last five years):
 
 
   Moreover, I have found this methodology particularly hard to implement as a practical matter. As such, I have gone mostly to a long term strategic balanced allocation based upon some indexing (i.e. VT, VB, VSS). In addition, I have a healthy amount allocated to Berkshire(BRK-B) and the Wellington fund(VWELX) on the domestic side and Emerging Markets (VWO) on the foreign side with some allocation to energy(VDE) and metals(Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining Fund). I have smaller positions in Intermediate Corporate Bonds (VCIT) and Mortgaged Backed Securities (VMBS). I will look to add foreign bond funds when Vanguard comes out with its two new funds. Therefore, this will be my last post on the Moose. The returns are of Friday’s adjusted closing prices. Good luck everyone.
 
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY 1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 13.44%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 7.40%
 
SPY 12.3%
 
Decision Moose: –.86%
 
Alternate Moose –7.42%
Monthly Alternate Moose 2.86%
Monthly U.S. Sectors 1.23%

PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 SPY
Alternate Moose: #1 VNQ #2 SPY #3 IWM
 
Monthly Timing (Select): XLI (March)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): ILF (March)
 
Sandy
 

Monday, March 12, 2012

Market Timing

3-11-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY  1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 11.81%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 6.09%
SPY 9.6%
Decision Moose: –2.79%
 
Alternate Moose –4.71%
Monthly Alternate Moose .56% (as of March 1)
Monthly U.S. Sectors –.68% (as of March 1)
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 SPY
Alternate Moose: #1 GLD #2 EWJ #3 SPY
Monthly Timing (Select): XLI (March)
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): ILF (March)
Sandy

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Market Timing

3-4-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY 1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 12.08%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 6.22%
 
SPY 9.4%
 
Decision Moose: –2.97%
 
 
Alternate Moose –2.26%
Monthly Alternate Moose .56% (as of March 1)
Monthly U.S. Sectors –.68% (as of March 1)
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 SPY
Alternate Moose: #1 ILF #2 EPP #3 SPY
 
Monthly Timing (Select): XLI (March)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): ILF (March)
 
Sandy

Monday, February 27, 2012

Market Timing

2-19-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY 1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 12.79%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 5.81%
SPY: 9.1%
Decision Moose: –.08%
 
Alternate Moose –2.86%
Monthly Alternate Moose .03% (as of Feb. 1)
Monthly U.S. Sectors .03% (as of Feb. 1)
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 IWM
Alternate Moose: #1 VNQ #2 GLD #3 IWM
Monthly Timing (Select): XLB (February)
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): IWM (February)
Sandy

Monday, February 20, 2012

Market Timing

2-19-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY 1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 11.96%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 5.55%
 
SPY 8.7%
 
Decision Moose: .10%
 
Alternate Moose -1.84%
Monthly Alternate Moose .03% (as of Feb. 1)
Monthly U.S. Sectors .03% (as of Feb. 1)
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 IWM
Alternate Moose: #1 VNQ #2 IWM #3 SPY

Monthly Timing (Select): XLB (February)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): IWM (February)
 
Sandy

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Market Timing

2-4-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
SPY 1.9%
Decision Moose: 16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:

World Market Cap Benchmark: 10.76%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.29% (as of 1/31/12)
 
SPY 7.20%
 
Decision Moose: -1.83%
 
Alternate Moose 1.00%
Monthly Alternate Moose           
Monthly U.S. Sectors
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ

Alternate Moose: #1 VNQ #2 IWM #3 SPY
 
Monthly Timing (Select): XLB (February)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): IWM (February)
 
Sandy

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Market Timing

1-29-12
 
2011 Total Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
 
SPY 1.9%
 
Decision Moose: 16.82%
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 7.25%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund 3.35%
 
SPY 5.00%
 
Decision Moose: -1.32%
Alternate Moose -1.32%
Monthly Alternate Moose -1.32%
Monthly U.S. Sectors -1.32%
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ
Alternate Moose: #1 VNQ #2 TLT #3 IWM
 
Monthly Timing (Select): BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Sandy

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Market Timing

1-22-12
2011 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark:              –10.12%
Wellington Balanced Fund:                        3.85%
SPY                                                          1.9%
Decision Moose:                                      16.82%
 
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark:                5.78%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund                       3.41%
 
SPY                                                       4.80%
 
Decision Moose:                                      -2.65%
 
Alternate Moose                                       -2.65%
Monthly Alternate Moose                          -2.65%
Monthly U.S. Sectors                               -2.65%

PICKS:
Decision Moose:               #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ
Alternate Moose:              #1 TLT #2 VNQ #3 SPY
Monthly Timing (Select):           BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):    BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Sandy

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Market Timing

1-15-12
 
2011 Total Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark: –10.12%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund: 3.85%
 
SPY 1.9%
 
Decision Moose: 16.82%
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark: 2.14%
 
Wellington Balanced Fund 1.95%
 
SPY 2.7%
 
Decision Moose: -1.43%
Alternate Moose -1.43%
Monthly Alternate Moose -1.43%
Monthly U.S. Sectors -1.43%
PICKS:
Decision Moose: #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ
Alternate Moose: #1 TLT #2 VNQ #3 SPY
 
Monthly Timing (Select): BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose): BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Sandy

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Market Timing

1-8-12
 
2011 Total Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark:            –10.12%
 
SPY                                                       1.9%
 
Decision Moose:                                  16.82%
2012 Total Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark:              .68%
 
SPY                                                     1.8%
 
Decision Moose:                                 -1.53%
 
Monthly Alternate Moose                     -1.53%
Monthly U.S. Sectors                          -1.53%

PICKS:
Decision Moose:                       #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ
Alternate Moose:                      #1 TLT          #2 VNQ         #3 UUP 
Monthly Timing (Select):            BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):      BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Sandy

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Market Timing

1-3-2012
 
Total return for 2010 for the market cap weighted benchmark = 19.826%
 
2011 Total Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark:                                                       –10.12%
 
SPY                                                                                                  1.9%
 
Decision Moose:                                                                              16.82%
PICKS:
Decision Moose:                               #1 BTTRX or TLT or EDV or ZROZ
Alternate Moose:                               #1 TLT    #2 VNQ    #3 IWM
 
Monthly Timing (Select):                   BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):            BTTRX or TLT (Bonds-January)
 
Happy New Year
 
Sandy