Sunday, September 25, 2011

Market Timing

9-25-11
 
Performance Update as of 9-23-11 for SPY, VT, VB and VSS are from
ETFreplay.com (includes dividends).
 
Updates for the Moose, Alternate Moose and Monthly Timing Model are done by me based upon closing prices from Yahoo Finance (does not include dividends).
 
The weighting for the World Market Cap benchmark will be as follows:
VT at 50.0% weighting = 13.11% YTD x 50.00%= 6.555%
VB at 20.7% weighting = 28.10% YTD x 20.70%= 5.817%
VSS at 29.3% weighting =25.44%YTD x 29.30%= 7.454%
--------
Total return for 2010 for the market cap weighted benchmark = 19.826%
 
2011 Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark:     –21.91% YTD
 
SPY:                                              –11.3% YTD
 
Decision Moose:                             15.80% YTD
Alternate Moose:
Monthly Timing:
PICKS:
Decision Moose:                          #1 CASH
Alternate Moose:                         #1 TLT     #2 GLD      #3 SH
 
Monthly Timing (Select):             BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):      BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
 
I have two monthly timing models. The first one will use the 9 select
sector SPDR ETFs, plus ILF and EPP. The second one will have the same ETFs as my Alternate Moose, which are SPY, IWM, ILF, VNQ, IEV, EWJ, EPP, GLD, DBC, DBA, UUP, UDN, SH, TLT and TBF.
They both will use a 6 month look back and will go to bonds if the 7 month moving average of  the SPY is negative. I will start to track the year to date returns beginning in January, 2012.
 
Please let me know if you don't want to receive these e-mails anymore and I will remove you from my list.
 
Sandy

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Market Timing

9-18-11
Performance Update as of 9-16-11 for SPY, VT, VB and VSS are from
ETFreplay.com (includes dividends).
 
Updates for the Moose, Alternate Moose and Monthly Timing Model are done by me based upon closing prices from Yahoo Finance (does not include dividends).
 
The weighting for the World Market Cap benchmark will be as follows:
 
VT at 50.0% weighting = 13.11% YTD x 50.00%= 6.555%
VB at 20.7% weighting = 28.10% YTD x 20.70%= 5.817%
VSS at 29.3% weighting =25.44%YTD x 29.30%= 7.454%
--------
Total return for 2010 for the market cap weighted benchmark = 19.826%
2011 Returns:
World Market Cap Benchmark:        -11.74% YTD
SPY:                                                  -2.8% YTD
Decision Moose:                               27.56% YTD
Alternate Moose:
Monthly Timing:
PICKS:
Decision Moose:                               #1 GLD
Alternate Moose:                              #1 GLD    #2 TLT    #3 SH
 
Monthly Timing (Select):                     BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
 
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):              BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
 
 
I have two monthly timing models. The first one will use the 9 select
sector SPDR ETFs, plus ILF and EPP. The second one will have the same ETFs as my Alternate Moose, which are SPY, IWM, ILF, VNQ, IEV, EWJ, EPP, GLD, DBC, DBA, UUP, UDN, SH, TLT and TBF.
They both will use a 6 month look back and will go to bonds if the 7 month moving average of the SPY is negative. I will start to track the year to date returns beginning in January, 2012.
 
Sandy



 

 

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Market Timing

9-11-11
Performance Update as of 9-9-11 for SPY, VT, VB and VSS are from
ETFreplay.com (includes dividends).
 
Updates for the Moose, Alternate Moose and Monthly Timing Model are done by me based upon closing prices from Yahoo Finance (does not include dividends).
 
The weighting for the World Market Cap benchmark will be as follows:
VT at 50.0% weighting = 13.11% YTD x 50.00%= 6.555%
VB at 20.7% weighting = 28.10% YTD x 20.70%= 5.817%
VSS at 29.3% weighting =25.44%YTD x 29.30%= 7.454%
--------
Total return for 2010 for the market cap weighted benchmark = 19.826%
 
2011 Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark:            –16.70% YTD
 
SPY:                                                        9.9% YTD
 
Decision Moose:                                     30.95% YTD
Alternate Moose:
Monthly Timing:
PICKS:
Decision Moose:                         #1 GLD
Alternate Moose:                        #1 GLD     #2 TLT      #3 DBA
 
Monthly Timing (Select):            BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
Monthly Timing (Alt. Moose):      BTTRX or TLT (Bonds)
 
I have two monthly timing models. The first one will use the 9 select
sector SPDR ETFs, plus ILF and EPP. The second one will have the same ETFs as my Alternate Moose, which are SPY, IWM, ILF, VNQ, IEV, EWJ, EPP, GLD, DBC, DBA, UUP, UDN, SH, TLT and TBF.
They both will use a 6 month look back and will go to bonds if the 7 month moving average of the SPY is negative. I will start to track the year to date returns beginning in January, 2012.
 
Sandy

Sunday, September 4, 2011

9-4-11
 
Performance Update as of 9-2-11 for SPY, VT, VB and VSS are from
ETFreplay.com (includes dividends).
Updates for the Moose, Alternate Moose and Monthly Timing Model are done by me based upon closing prices from Yahoo Finance (does not include dividends).
 
The weighting for the World Market Cap benchmark will be as follows:
VT at 50.0% weighting = 13.11% YTD x 50.00%= 6.555%
VB at 20.7% weighting = 28.10% YTD x 20.70%= 5.817%
VSS at 29.3% weighting =25.44%YTD x 29.30%= 7.454%
--------
Total return for 2010 for the market cap weighted benchmark = 19.826%
 
2011 Returns:
 
World Market Cap Benchmark:           –12.83% YTD
 
SPY:                                                    –7.9% YTD
 
Decision Moose:                                  32.79% YTD
 
Alternate Moose:
Monthly Timing:
PICKS:
Decision Moose:                           #1 GLD
 
Alternate Moose:                          #1 GLD    #2 TLT    #3 DBA
 
Monthly Timing:                          #1 BTTRX or TLT (Bonds) (September)
 
I have two monthly timing models. The first one will use the 9 select
sector SPDR ETFs, plus ILF and EPP. The second one will have the same ETFs as my Alternate Moose, which are SPY, IWM, ILF, VNQ, IEV, EWJ, EPP, GLD, DBC, DBA, UUP, UDN, SH, TLT and TBF.
They both will use a 6 month look back and will go to bonds if the 7 month moving average of  the SPY is negative. I will start to track the year to date returns beginning in January, 2012.
 
Sandy